Forecasting the EU Sugar Balance Sheet: 2016/17, 2017/18 & Future Years
This new monthly forecast service has been developed in response to the 2017 liberalisation of the EU sugar market. It will provide visibility on future EU sugar production, the trade balance and prices. It is primarily aimed at farmers, beet processors, refiners, traders and end-users and all those involved in the sugar industry and related industries like isoglucose and ethanol.
The impending abolition of quotas is already leading to a shake-up in the EU sugar market and it will have profound implications for the EU sugar balance (the “bilan”) and for EU sugar prices. There will therefore be substantial value in the ability to predict sugar production and import/export levels. The new LMC monthly report provides this value, giving visibility on future EU sugar production, trade and EU sugar prices, well in advance of the beet planting season.
Applying a bottom-up approach, the service looks at each individual Member State, as well as regions within sugar-producing countries, to present a robust analysis of the future EU “bilan”. It does this by capturing the future returns of beet versus alternative crops, farmers’ planting intentions, processing costs, the cost and viability of imports, sugar trade flows within the EU, isoglucose production and trade, demand for sugar – for food, chemicals and ethanol and much more…
The report is available as a “Core” or “Premium” service.
The core service provides all the key elements of the current and forecast market balance or “bilan”:
- Production – for 19 beet sugar producing countries
- Imports – ACP/LDC, FTAs, Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova, CXL
- Exports – volume and destination of EU exports
- Consumption – sugar (food, non-fuel), isoglucose and bioethanol
- Prospects for the next crop year
- Isoglucose – developments in production and trade flows
- EU supply/demand forecasts
- The outlook for sugar prices in the EU
The premium service is as described above but subscribers also get more detailed analysis of:
- The cost structure of EU beet sugar production for each member state and at a regional level with each member state
- Costs of production for competing crops
- Beet prices derived from future EU sugar prices
- Future values of alternative crops (wheat, maize and rapeseed)
- Gross margins from beet and alternative crops
- Beet prices needed to match other crop revenues
- Farmers’ planting intentions and the implications for beet area and beet sugar production
- Processing costs at a factory level
- The cost and viability of imports
- Trade flows – white and DC raws and raws for refining
- Sugar and isoglucose flows within the EU
- Demand – food, chemicals and ethanol
- Market balance by Member State
- The outlook for sugar prices in the EU including the likely interaction between the EU and world market
For a more detailed description of the contents of each section, download the brochure.
Core service subscribers will receive:
Premium service subscribers will receive:
Key data in Excel
Both services: Access to senior LMC staff to discuss and interpret the findings and forecasts
For more information or to subscribe to the study, contact our Sugar experts, or download the brochure.